El costo de la violencia: cómo el aumento de homicidios impacta la inversión extranjera directa en Ecuador
The cost of violence: how rising homicides impact foreign direct investment in Ecuador
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.56712/latam.v7i4.6421Palabras clave:
inversión extranjera directa, homicidios, seguridad ciudadana, series temporalesResumen
La Inversión Extranjera Directa (IED) es un motor fundamental para el desarrollo económico, aunque su efectividad está condicionada por la calidad institucional y la seguridad ciudadana. El objetivo de este estudio es analizar el impacto del número de homicidios en la IED en Ecuador. Para ello, se empleó una metodología cuantitativa con un diseño no experimental de series temporales trimestrales entre 2014 y 2024, analizando 44 observaciones mediante el software SPSS. Los datos, obtenidos del Banco Central y el Ministerio del Interior, fueron sometidos a pruebas de normalidad de Kolmogorov-Smirnov y correlación de Spearman. Los resultados revelaron una correlación negativa moderada y significativa de -0.465, indicando una relación inversa entre la violencia y los flujos de capital. El modelo de regresión confirmó un coeficiente negativo de -77,699, sugiriendo que por cada homicidio adicional, la IED disminuye en aproximadamente 77,699 millones de USD. En conclusión, se valida la hipótesis de que el incremento de la violencia criminal ejerce un impacto negativo sustancial en la inversión. Se recomienda fortalecer la seguridad pública como requisito indispensable para recuperar la confianza del inversor extranjero.
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Derechos de autor 2026 Jorge Izaguirre Olmedo, Ernesto Rangel Luzuriaga, Adrián Olivos Zuñiga, Santiago Veliz Pastuzo

Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución 4.0.












