El costo de la violencia: cómo el aumento de homicidios impacta la inversión extranjera directa en Ecuador

The cost of violence: how rising homicides impact foreign direct investment in Ecuador

Autores/as

  • Jorge Izaguirre Olmedo Universidad Internacional del Ecuador
  • Ernesto Rangel Luzuriaga Universidad Internacional del Ecuador
  • Adrián Olivos Zuñiga Universidad Internacional del Ecuador
  • Santiago Veliz Pastuzo Universidad Internacional del Ecuador

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.56712/latam.v7i4.6421

Palabras clave:

inversión extranjera directa, homicidios, seguridad ciudadana, series temporales

Resumen

La Inversión Extranjera Directa (IED) es un motor fundamental para el desarrollo económico, aunque su efectividad está condicionada por la calidad institucional y la seguridad ciudadana. El objetivo de este estudio es analizar el impacto del número de homicidios en la IED en Ecuador. Para ello, se empleó una metodología cuantitativa con un diseño no experimental de series temporales trimestrales entre 2014 y 2024, analizando 44 observaciones mediante el software SPSS. Los datos, obtenidos del Banco Central y el Ministerio del Interior, fueron sometidos a pruebas de normalidad de Kolmogorov-Smirnov y correlación de Spearman. Los resultados revelaron una correlación negativa moderada y significativa de -0.465, indicando una relación inversa entre la violencia y los flujos de capital. El modelo de regresión confirmó un coeficiente negativo de -77,699, sugiriendo que por cada homicidio adicional, la IED disminuye en aproximadamente 77,699 millones de USD. En conclusión, se valida la hipótesis de que el incremento de la violencia criminal ejerce un impacto negativo sustancial en la inversión. Se recomienda fortalecer la seguridad pública como requisito indispensable para recuperar la confianza del inversor extranjero.

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Biografía del autor/a

Jorge Izaguirre Olmedo, Universidad Internacional del Ecuador

Ernesto Rangel Luzuriaga, Universidad Internacional del Ecuador

Adrián Olivos Zuñiga, Universidad Internacional del Ecuador

Santiago Veliz Pastuzo, Universidad Internacional del Ecuador

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Publicado

2026-09-03

Cómo citar

Izaguirre Olmedo, J., Rangel Luzuriaga, E., Olivos Zuñiga, A., & Veliz Pastuzo, S. (2026). El costo de la violencia: cómo el aumento de homicidios impacta la inversión extranjera directa en Ecuador: The cost of violence: how rising homicides impact foreign direct investment in Ecuador. LATAM Revista Latinoamericana De Ciencias Sociales Y Humanidades, 7(4), 2656 – 2666. https://doi.org/10.56712/latam.v7i4.6421

Número

Sección

Ciencias administrativas, contables y económicas