Desarrollo de un indicador compuesto de propensión perceptual a la adopción de biomasa forestal en pellets en el segmento residencial
Development of a composite indicator of perceptual propensity to adopt forest biomass pellets in the residential sector
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.56712/latam.v6i6.5073Palabras clave:
biomasa forestal pelletizada, indicador compuesto, análisis estadístico multivariado, optimización DEA-IC, simulación de MontecarloResumen
El presente trabajo presenta el desarrollo y aplicación de un indicador compuesto, que refleja la propensión a la adopción de biomasa forestal pelletizada (BFP), como energético sustituto del empleado habitualmente para calefacción en hogares residenciales. Este indicador es de origen perceptual, pues su construcción parte de la percepción que una muestra de usuarios residenciales, manifiestan sobre un conjunto de variables relacionadas con tres dimensiones centrales de la BFP: calidad energética, comercialización y logística, y dificultades operativas de uso. El procedimiento de construcción sigue un enfoque metodológico mixto, en etapas secuenciales, que emplea: técnicas del análisis estadístico multivariado (análisis factorial exploratorio -AFE-, análisis factorial confirmatorio -AFC- Multi-grupo), optimización soportada en análisis envolvente de datos -DEA-IC-, y simulación para configuraciones estables de mínima dispersión del indicador compuesto adoptado como operativo (método de Montecarlo). El indicador compuesto operativo queda, entonces, validado conforme las métricas exigidas para cada etapa, tanto por la literatura como por las buenas prácticas sugeridas por expertos. El estudio se realizó a partir de una encuesta a individuos jefes de hogar, pertenecientes al segmento residencial suburbano (considerado de alto potencial de penetración para la BFP), en una región de las provincias de Córdoba y Santa Fe, Argentina, cuyos perfiles de consumo energético tienen similares características. Los resultados resultaron de gran utilidad para la definición de políticas de incentivos que favorezcan la penetración de la BFP en forma segmentada por región.
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