Transiciones monetarias post-hegemónicas: Un enfoque de modelización estocástica
Post-Hegemonic Monetary Transitions: A Stochastic Modeling Approach
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.56712/latam.v6i4.4579Palabras clave:
escenarios de aceleración por deuda, moneda áurea, asimetría colateralResumen
Un cambio tectónico en el poder global se proyecta mediante 10,000 simulaciones estocásticas, situando el ascenso hegemónico de China en 2031.2 (IC 95%: 2023.5-2038.9) con una duración media de 85.1 años superior a ciclos históricos. La metodología integra tres ejes críticos: estabilidad política (coeficiente β=0.82 para el partido chino), ventajas económicas (tecnología cuántica explica el 68% del crecimiento), y volatilidad militar, modelados con distribuciones triangulares avaladas por pruebas Kolmogórov-Smirnov. Los resultados exponen: Desplazamiento económico en 2040: China lideraría con 42 trillones USD de PIB frente a 34 trillones USD de EE.UU., mientras el BRICS captura el 57% del peso global (límite superior: 70.8% con moneda áurea, reduciendo un 18% la volatilidad cambiaria). Aceleradores disruptivos: crisis de deuda estadounidense (>120% PIB, probabilidad 45%) adelanta el predominio chino a 2027; las sanciones impulsan alternativas al dólar en 35% de escenarios. Correlación estructural: ???? = −0.72 entre PIB de EE.UU. y peso BRICS, confirmando el declive occidental ante la consolidación emergente. Riesgos asimétricos: guerras comerciales prolongarán la hegemonía occidental hasta 2045, pero con un costo del 30% del PIB esperado. Este modelo revela un orden multipolar irreversible, donde el dólar se reconfigura como activo refugio secundario (relevante solo en 60% de transacciones energéticas), y el BRICS opera como ecosistema estratégico dependiente de tecnología china, energía rusa y mercados indios. La principal innovación radica en cuantificar shocks militares y alianzas ad hoc ausentes en proyecciones del FMI/OCDE, ofreciendo a gestores de política un mapa probabilístico para reformular tal umbral sistémico.Descargas
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Derechos de autor 2025 Jose Alberto Aldave Valderrama, Raúl Arturo Camarena Gamarra, Luz Patricia Galarreta Nalvarte, Ronald Román Zaravia Aldave
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución 4.0.
